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It seems that all efforts to avert war over the last few months have come to nothing as Bush and Blair call to an end the charade of diplomatic efforts to avert a war (that as our suspicions confirmed was decided upon months ago), regardless of what Hans Blix and the inspectors found or achieved. The prediction of a war for oil also finds vindication as the price drops by $4 a barrel and the heavily oil dependent airlines share prices soar; an early victory for the corporations of America.
The far reaching consequences for the world however remain the same: Death to potentially thousands of innocent Iraqis, more fuel to the fire of anti-western sentiment in the Middle East and Muslim communities, the creation of many more willing martyrs to the cause and massive rifts in the UN that threaten its validity and existence as the worlds policeman.
In Iraq the food for oil program is to be suspended, the only way most Iraqis are able to survive. Aid organisations predict thousands of deaths with no meaningful amounts of money being promised to feed the millions of people affected. Saddam's callous placement of military installations near schools and hospitals will result in the deaths of many more. The difficult street fighting that could occur in Baghdad would resulting in the deaths of not only Iraqis but British coalition troops in numbers not seen for many years.
One of the major causes of the resentment that creates terrorists is the perceived colonial designs of the West and Israel, a resentment that has a history sourced in the creation of Israel and the betrayal by the colonial powers of Britain and France in the Sykes-Picot Agreement of 1916. Many Arabs see Israel as one thing - a western colony on Arab soil (a crass equivalent is the state of Yemen being created in the American Mid-West). Terrorists will always be able to get arms from one source or another, be it the US as in the past or any number of money starved countries around the world. The answer is to remove the injustices that push desperate, hopeless people to kill others, not exasperate them.
The neo-conservative hawks currently at the helm of the US have long dismissed the UN as threat to US sovereignty and power, so will not care about the state it is left in after this crisis, but we should all fear the realisation that the US can now do as it pleases without any serious opposition and wonder which is the next state that has the potential to boost the United States bank balance. France and Russia’s opposition is not dovish either, they are merely trying to protect previously arranged contracts, but the sidestepping of the UN over Iraq sets a dangerous new precedent in the age of the arms proliferating Star Wars program.
The sway in public opinion to support the war is understandable: Saddam needs to be removed and the Iraqi people liberated - forced "regime change" of this type however has never been so bluntly used by the US and whatever post-war administration (on the basis they win) installed will face many issues and I am sure opposition - not least in bringing together the three main ethnic groups (the Kurds, Shias and Sunnis) into a coherent government something Saddam only achieved through ruthless oppression. Though victory could be claimed, this victory could be extremely fragile, as in Afghanistan with the many militias still in existence and Karzais ex-oilman government only in power with the help of a US military presence - in effect a colony.
The product/cost relationship is of course impossible to properly predict and as with the everyone else in the anti-war camp I hope we are completely wrong and that the streets of Baghdad will be lined with petals for the soldiers as they roll in to cheers, however it is likely that due to the lack of political will to solve the problems of Tyrants like Saddam apart from with a large military stick, many of the concerns raised here will be become very real problems over the coming months and years and without some massive concessions to the Arab people and inspired government in post-war Iraqi perhaps all.
Dan Bond - 19/03/2003
Updated 14.08.03 (Some factual mistakes fixed)